How Long before Blu-ray is Considered an HD DVD?

And before I begin I am making no assumptions in this thread about Blu-ray failing like HD DVD, or any of that nonsense. What I am talking about is purely of names and identities.

Let’s face it, the average consumer doesn’t take to new names all that often. Sure, DVD wasn’t reverted back to being called VHS, or disc VHS or anything like that, but VHS also wasn’t a disc. DVD shared very few similarities with it’s bulky step cousin twice removed; VHS. Blu-ray, on the other hand does almost the exact same things as DVD only better, and in High Definition. Now that HD DVD is dead, how long will it be before consumers coin the term off onto the victor: Blu-ray?

Before you shout me down pleading to others of my ignorance on the matter you should know that we already saw this type of thing happening even before the format war was over. For those that recall, visitors to Google’s search engine were constantly looking up HD DVD as opposed to Blu-ray, despite Blu-ray maintaining a lead on the sales front (LINK). It makes sense that the name is more popular than Blu-ray because consumers generally know what Blu-ray is; a DVD with high definition content on it, i.e. an HD DVD. Technical garble aside, both are discs that play movies/hold content only one does it in HD. Even the U.S. Government did this in the recent court filings against Blu-ray when they listed in the papers: HD DVD players (e.g. Blu-ray disc players) (LINK).

So is this Blu-ray’s fate? Two, three, five years down the road are we going to be calling them HD DVDs again, despite them really being Blu-rays? I know a lot of you probably think this is inconceivable, but is it really? Consumers (myself included by the way) have definitely done stupider things and, to be perfectly honest, do we even need the Blu-ray name? The war is over. Fancy names aside if you were to look at a Blu-ray disc and a DVD would you notice any real differences in them? I doubt it…

I’m Sick of Vista Complaints

Anybody who buys an OS and expects it to be as stable as the last iteration is an idiot. I mean no personal attacks on anybody but it’s true, and I won’t be easy on anybody who thinks that. It’s the 21st century, there is no reason why people should expect such things.

Do you expect a game to ship without bugs?

What about your favorite MMO?

So why did you all expect Vista, on day one, to be so f-ing great? Who cares if Microsoft told you that it was, you were a sheep lured into a wolves den then. Game companies hype their games the same exact way. Anybody who knows anything about computers should know this. Hell, when Vista came out I held off on buying it for about 8 months because I knew that it was not going to run properly with every game or piece of hardware and you know what? I was right! Like every OS that preceded Vista it did not work with every game or piece of hardware. However, now, after a year it works great for my gaming PC.

Bottom line is that people expected Vista to be the “wonder OS” to save them from their computer troubles, which is perhaps Microsoft’s fault for hyping it too much. I’ll be straight about this 100%, there was no fucking way that every driver for every hardware/software/etc. was going to be available on Vista’s release. There were just damn many things for the Windows platform, which is actually part of the allure of the Windows-based system.

The whole sticker thing is a different issue altogether, and Microsoft should definitely feel some repercussions for it. That said, however, I am so sick of hearing people complain about Vista.

“Ohhh Vista won’t do this.”

“My Vista is so slow compared to XP.”

That’s the price of change and expansion! Sure XP was a stable OS, but it’s old. It had two SPs under it’s belt with numerous upgrades and fixes before that. It did not come out as the “wonder OS”, although Windows 2000, and ME definitely helped XP’s image. Vista, on the other hand, was offering something truly new to the Windows platform since Windows 95. It was birthed out of the legacy that XP built and when it wasn’t as fully functional on day one as XP was at four years people through temper tantrums, like bloody school children. Well guess what? Vista is better than XP, if for nothing else than the mere fact that it’s change and it’s different.

Truth be told, technology advances differently from most other things. When a new technology that is replacing something else comes out it is usually not as good as it’s predecessor. Actually sometimes it can seem downright horrid in comparison. What people don’t realize is that the predecessor is a base for the new technology, a goal for the designers to bring it up to that level. Usually this comes fairly quickly and then they are able to build upon it to make it even better, something that was impossible with the previous technology. XP was great, but, as a technological society, we could not use it forever. Vista is out now, and it will eventually become better. . .

Oh, and for those who are waiting for Microsoft’s rumoured 2009 OS to come out, I wouldn’t hold my breath. For one, that’s probably gonna get delayed by at least a year. Second, and this one is really my main point, the next OS will not be a “wonder” OS on release either. Expect it to ship with the same shitty bugs that Vista and XP were shipped with. . .

Welcome to the 21st century.

HD Format War Conspiracy!

So, this is mainly just for fun. It’s been something that I have been thinking about for a while now, since late July actually. I don’t really believe this is what happened but it makes for an interesting read anyways. Also, it’s not totally out of the picture that this could happen. Anyways onto the conspiracy:

Was the format war all a manipulated plan to subvert the consumer into buying a new product they didn’t need? Over the course of the format war (which continues to rage on today) a few semi-major events cropped up that suggests that Sony, Toshiba, Microsoft, and all movie studios were actually manipulating the format war from the beginning in order in ensure that the HD format would succeed and not flounder. Let’s start with the beginning:

Back in 2005 Toshiba and Sony had both agreed that a format war was not good and that they needed to combine their technology to avoid one.

The media (owned primarily by the movie studios) picked up this story and ran with it citing that a “format war” (over exaggerated mumbo jumbo) would be the worst possible thing for consumers with constant references to the VHS-Beta war. These were reassurances so that the populace would know exactly what would happen in the event of a “war”. In the end, the talks between Sony and Toshiba broke down citing that each one had wanted different things to be included in the disc.

Sony announced that the PS3 would carry a Blu-ray player inside. Microsoft also announced exclusive support for the HD DVD format, thus sealing the videogame crowd into the market. Gamers are one of the few consumers who buy into this kind of crap. . . to many, loyalty is everything.

The 360 launched in 2005, securing a win over the PS3, but without an HD DVD player securing an underdog status for HD DVD.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray officially launched (HD DVD first) in mid 2006. HD DVD is backed by Weinstein and Universal exclusively and by Warner, Paramount, and Magnolia unexclusively. Blu-ray is backed by Fox, Disney, Sony, Lionsgate, and MGM exclusively as well as Warner, Paramount, and Magnolia unexclusively. HD DVD’s underdog status is officially achieved but it was given enough power so as to present a “challenge” to Blu-ray.

From Summer 2006-Nov 2006 HD DVD is firmly winning the format war due to it’s obvious price advantage, another advantage given to the underdog format. This is done to show that HD DVD actually might be able to win. . .

The PS3 launches, and although it boosts Blu-ray to a 2-1 sales lead in software, it flounders horribly as a video game machine. Perhaps this was in the deal the whole time. Sony gets to have the next gen format but has to secede the video game market to Microsoft (nobody expected Nintendo to do so well at this point).

In order to stave off any consumer overthrow of the Blu-ray format (and it’s very expensive prices) the HD DVD studios are told not to release anything for about 3 months after the PS3 launches. This gives the consumer the idea that Blu-ray has already won.

Weinstein drops out of the HD race. This appears to have not been part of the plan at all. They shut up, step back, and refuse to comment on anything regarding HD or Blu-ray. Perhaps they thought manipulating a war was bad and feared that if consumers found out about what was happening all parties involved would suffer a severe backlash, something a smaller studio like Weinstein couldn’t afford.

July of 2007, HD DVD seems to be very near the brink of death. With only one studio supporting it exclusively the consumers are beginning to waive in their support for the format. Something needs to be done since the war hasn’t gained enough publicity yet. By August, Paramount/Dreamworks are told to release movies exclusively on HD DVD. The media is a riot. They rave on and on and on about how HD DVD was about to die and how this may have saved them. Reports of a “buy-out” swirl in the weeks ahead.

Reports that Microsoft and Toshiba are currently trying to buy Warner circle the rumour parts of media conglomerates for at least 2 months after the Paramount/DreamWorks announcement.

Rumours of an HD DVD equipped Xbox 360 start to crop up, but each time they are firmly dashed with no question on the matter. It’s not part of the deal that Microsoft’s console is to have a built in HD DVD player, which would cause severe headaches for the PS3. Remember: Microsoft gets gaming, Sony gets the next media format.

Sony sells off it’s chip processing to Toshiba, which is now actively making the cell processors for the PS3, their largest “competition” in the format war. Maybe this is payment to Toshiba for wasting so much money on helping to fuel a fraudulent war?

Warner comes out and says that it has to choose a side, after canceling their THD disc program. Citing that stand alone players matter most, they give hope to the consumer that HD DVD will win over Warner exclusivity. After all, at this point HD DVD players were much cheaper than Blu-ray’s, one of the key aspects that made it “consumer friendly.”

HD DVD needs to secure in people’s minds that Warner will go HD DVD exclusively (more publicity) so they launch a deal with Wal-Mart to sell cheap $99 players. 90,000 are sold in one weekend. The consumer is convinced that, based off of Warner’s statements, they will go HD DVD exclusive and HD DVD will win. The media reports all the positive news surrounding HD DVD.

Transformer’s releases to the general public on DVD and HD DVD. Not realizing what a huge flick it would be the companies quickly organize a “Buy One Get One Free” sale for Blu-ray titles. After all, HD DVD can’t win one single week or the consumer might see a shift in the war.

Paramount declares it sold 190,000 HD DVDs in the first week for Transformers, which are disputed by the BDA and Neilson’s Videoscan. Another media shitfest hits, providing more and more publicity to the growing format war.

Every major HD DVD title from then on has a Blu-ray BOGO attached to it just to ensure the master plan does not get thwarted. This includes both Shrek the Third and the Bourne Ultimatum.

Mid-December; HD DVD begins launching it’s own BOGO sales to begin “clearing stock” Warner knows that it’s time to shift to Blu-ray is almost here and thus many of the BOGO sales surround Warner’s titles.

Friday, 2 days before CES 2008 starts Warner is told to go Blu-ray exclusive. A media craze is struck up again. Most touting that Blu-ray has won the “war”.

Toshiba is told to issue a press release hinting at possible legal issues between them and Warner.

Toshiba cancels it’s 2 hour event at CES due to them “not knowing” that Warner was going to make the switch. . .

Is there gonna be more to this conspiracy tale? Universal and P/DW are still exclusive to HD DVD. They could ride this media circus for at least 3-4 more months.

My main point in all of this is that the whole war was manipulated from the beginning so that the HDM wouldn’t flounder like Laserdisc did. It is common knowledge that revolutionary products take hold very fast, evolutionary products often do not. HDM is very much an evolutionary product that builds off the DVD format. Without all the loyalty and bickering in forums and stores would HDM have gotten this far? Is it an interesting enough product that consumers would have been interested if the media didn’t tell us to be interested in it?

Is this a legit conspiracy? Who knows. . . I don’t necessarily believe that this did happen. What I do believe is that this could happen. Hollywood is losing more and more money each year. It’ll only be so long until that they try something as dramatic as this. . .

Anyways, take this for what it is: a fun read. That’s why I wrote it. This is not a bash on Blu-ray or HD DVD. Just a harmless conspiracy theory.

Thanks for reading.

Here’s the thing about the HD format war. . .

HD media (Blu-ray, HD DVD, HD VMD, etc.) probably won’t ever beat out DVD. Shocking, I know. It’s just not likely to happen due to the “requirements” of enjoying such HD films.

Now, before I start on to the “why”, let me say that I am not saying they will fail. HD media formats could very well succeed without taking over the entire market. It can reach critical mass, and it can become a huge money generator along-side of DVD. Now onto the “why”:

HDM has requirements to enjoy. These requirements are relayed throughout almost every retail chain across the market. In order to enjoy HDM you need an HDTV. Bam! HDM already has a cap on how many units it can sell.

Now, according to this study (LINK) as of November 20th, 2007, about 25% of U.S. homes have an HDTV in them. Given the usual research study groups it probably has a +/- 5% error range. So let’s say 20%-30% of U.S. Homes in the U.S. right now have HDTVs in them. This means that if HDM players were to sell like gangbusters right now, they could only take about 25% of the marketplace, leaving DVD with 75%.

So I know what you are already thinking. HDTVs are reaching mass adoption and eventually everybody will have an HDTV. Yes, you are correct. Eventually everybody will own an HDTV in the U.S., there is no doubt about it. As more and more CE companies stop selling/making SDTVs consumers will have no choice but to adopt HDTVs. However, despite this being true there are a couple of conditions that go along with it:

First, HDTVs will not be reaching complete penetration in the next 2 years (date when the BDA says Blu-ray will completely dominate the market, 3 years from last March) . Hell, I’d be surprised if HDTVs reached 40% penetration in 2 years. If you look at the timeline for HDTVs you can tell that the trend for buying HDTVs in not exponential like DVDs sales were. There won’t be a short period time where there is a mass adoption of HDTVs. It happened with DVDs because Chinese manufacturers came in and slashed prices on a format that had no competition, didn’t need an upgraded player to work, and offered features that were revolutionary (not evolutionary) to consumers. HDTVs are too expensive (even with Chinese manufacturers), and still too confusing with average consumers still believing that Plasmas are better than LCDs, which are better than DLPs. HDTVs will not grow exponentially, but rather gradually over the next 10 years. It has taken about 10 years to reach 25%, I think in another 10 years it might reach 90%-100%.

Second, the same people who have bought HDTVs in the last 10 years are not the same people who will be buying HDTVs for the next 10-15-20 years. A lot of these people will simply be getting HDTVs because they have to. They need a new TV, their old one broke, etc. These same people won’t be rushing out to spend an additional $100 on HDM equipment/movies (assuming that at this time HDM players and movies drop to DVD levels).

So now let’s throw back in the HDM equation. Currently, HDM (combined) is selling pretty well. There are charts that are showing that HDM (specifically Blu-ray) is beginning to show the same sales trends as DVD. Good news, right? If Blu-ray (or any other HDM format) is half as successful as DVD then it’ll be well worth all the effort. However, at the current moment it can’t be that successful. As soon as it hits the “wall” the sales trend will stop, and will then gradually gain momentum along with HDTVs, probably falling under the same percentage. For example, let’s say HDTVs reach 50% market penetration, you can probably expect HDM players to reach 40%-45% penetration.

Finally, you have to take into account that when HDM seriously starts to take hold of the market there will also be radical price slashing of DVDs and DVD players (yes they can drop even lower). As with all products that are going into retirement, you can be assured that studios and CE companies will want to hang onto any last profits with that format for as long as possible even if that means slashing prices. This, in of itself, could undo HDM from establishing a dominant hold over the home video market by itself. As an evolutionary product (not a revolutionary product) there will be that large percentage of people in the U.S. who honestly just won’t see the benefit in HDM and will wish to take advantage of the reduced DVD prices to expand their movie collections even farther.

This may seem like a doom & gloom post for HDM, but it’s not. Actually, given the conditions, I think that HDM is very lucky to be coming into the market now as opposed to later or earlier. If HDM had come out in the beginning of the decade there probably wouldn’t have been enough HDTVs to supplement it, and it would have died off like Laserdisc. In turn, had HDM launched later this year, or even over the next 2 years there is a chance that it might not have reached enough critical mass to combat digital downloads when they become feasible, which is going to happen eventually, don’t kid yourself if you think that it’s an impossibility. Bottom line, HDM will become probably become a success (in one form or another), but chances are the consumer isn’t just going to stand up one day and throw out their DVD collections. In the end, I hope you are comfortable with a 2 format system because given all that I just explained I can’t honestly see it happening any other way.

Thanks for reading.